32 Picks, 1057 Possibilities, and a 0% Chance Anyone Gets Them All Right
Mock Draft Accuracy: Best of Field, 2021–2025
| Year | Best Analyst | Exact Matches | Players ID'd | Match Rate |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2021 | Josh Norris | 16/32 | 27/32 (84%) | 50% |
| 2022 | Jason Boris | 12/32 | 25/32 (78%) | 38% |
| 2023 | Green / Teets | 10/32 | 25/32 (78%) | 31% |
| 2024 | Jason Boris | 15/32 | 29/32 (91%) | 47% |
| 2025 | Dan Jeremiah | 7/32 | 24/32 (75%) | 22% |
There are 80 legitimate first-round prospects. 32 will be selected. The number of possible ordered outcomes is 1057.8 — more than the number of atoms in a galaxy. Even in the simplified case where you know exactly which 32 players will go and just need to match them to teams, there are 32 factorial permutations: 2.63 times 1035. That's a 35-digit number. Predicting a perfect first round is not hard. It is mathematically impossible.
And yet: Josh Norris nailed 16 of 32 picks in 2021. Jason Boris got 15 in 2024. These are not lucky guesses. A random assignment produces about 1 exact match on average. Getting 10 or more correct was never observed in 500,000 random simulations. Getting 15 correct by chance? The probability is effectively zero. The best draft analysts are doing something real — they're just doing it against a problem that can never be fully solved.
"A perfect mock draft is not unlikely. It is impossible. The best analysts know this. They're not trying to be right — they're trying to be less wrong than the math says they should be."
— The Sports Page, on the combinatorics of 32 picksThe Combinatorics of 32 Picks
The gap between 1 match (random) and 12 matches (expert) looks small. It's not. It's the difference between a coin flip and genuine knowledge about 32 organizations, 80 players, and 5–6 trades nobody sees coming.
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Norris correctly matched 16 players to their exact teams and identified 27 of the 32 first-round players. His Huddle Report score of 59 points remains the all-time record. To put this in perspective: getting 16/32 correct by random chance has a probability so low it was never observed in 500,000 simulations. Norris didn't get lucky. He solved half of an impossible problem.
The 2025 draft was chaos. Daniel Jeremiah — one of the most respected analysts in the business — led the field with just 7 exact matches. The draft featured surprise trades, unexpected slides, and reaches that no mock anticipated. Seven correct out of 32 is still 7x better than random chance. But it's a reminder: the draft doesn't care about your confidence.
