The Jets Draft Like a Team Trying to Lose — and the Math Says They Might Be Worse Than Random
Jets First-Round Picks, 2006–2025
| Year | Pick | Player | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2006 | #4 | D'Brickashaw Ferguson | Hit — 10-year starter |
| 2006 | #29 | Nick Mangold | Hit — 7x Pro Bowl |
| 2008 | #6 | Vernon Gholston | Bust — 0 career sacks |
| 2009 | #5 | Mark Sanchez | Mixed — 2 AFC title games, then collapse |
| 2010 | #29 | Kyle Wilson | Mixed — 5 seasons, 3 INT |
| 2013 | #9 | Dee Milliner | Bust — career over at 25 |
| 2013 | #13 | Sheldon Richardson | Mixed — decent, traded away |
| 2015 | #6 | Leonard Williams | Mixed — left for Giants |
| 2016 | #20 | Darron Lee | Bust — released after 3 seasons |
| 2018 | #3 | Sam Darnold | Bust — 39 INT, won SB with Seattle |
| 2019 | #3 | Quinnen Williams | Hit — All-Pro DT |
| 2020 | #11 | Mekhi Becton | Bust — injuries destroyed career |
| 2021 | #2 | Zach Wilson | Bust — worst QB rating since 2021 |
| 2021 | #14 | Alijah Vera-Tucker | Mixed — solid guard |
| 2022 | #4 | Sauce Gardner | Hit — DROY, All-Pro |
| 2022 | #10 | Garrett Wilson | Hit — OROY |
| 2023 | #15 | Jermaine Johnson | Mixed |
| 2025 | #7 | Armand Membou | TBD |
Since 2006, the Jets have made 18 first-round selections. Five became Pro Bowlers or All-Pros. Six were outright busts — players whose careers ended in disappointment, injury, or both. The remaining six were “decent,” which is the word you use when your fourth overall pick is merely adequate. The Jets’ 29% hit rate on first-rounders is bad. But the real crime is WHERE they bust. Their average bust was drafted at pick #8.5. Their average hit was drafted at pick #10.0. They fail on the picks that matter most.
The quarterback position is ground zero. Since 2009, the Jets have invested three first-round picks in quarterbacks: Mark Sanchez (#5), Sam Darnold (#3), and Zach Wilson (#2). Combined Pro Bowl appearances: zero. Combined approximate record as Jets starters: 46–67 (.407). Darnold went on to win Super Bowl LX with the Seahawks — the same franchise that also benefited from Geno Smith, whom the Jets originally drafted in 2013, let walk, watched revive his career in Seattle, and then traded to get back in 2026. The Jets are a farm system for other teams’ championships.
“The Jets drafted Geno Smith in 2013. Let him walk. Watched him become a starter in Seattle. Then traded to get him back in 2026. This is not a rebuilding franchise. It’s a recycling one.”
— The Sports Page, on the Jets’ circular quarterback economyHow Bad Is 29%? A Simulation.
What Could Have Been
The opportunity cost of a high bust isn’t just the wasted pick. It’s the Hall of Famer who went to Dallas. The Super Bowl quarterback who went to Cincinnati. The decade of relevance that went to someone else.
The Ghosts of Drafts Past
The Jets drafted Darnold third overall in 2018. He threw 39 interceptions in three seasons behind a bad offensive line with Adam Gase as his coach. The Jets gave up on him. He went to Carolina, then Minnesota, then Seattle — where he went 14–3 and won Super Bowl LX. The Jets didn’t just miss on Darnold. They broke him, threw him away, and watched someone else fix him.
Gholston was a physical specimen from Ohio State — 6’3, 260 lbs, ran a 4.58 forty. The Jets drafted him sixth overall. In three NFL seasons, he started five games and recorded zero sacks. Not one. Not a half. Zero. He was released in 2011 and never played another NFL game. The sixth pick in the 2008 draft generated less pass rush than a traffic cone.
