The A’s Are Moving to Vegas. The Raiders Already Did. The Data Says Neither Guarantees a Winner.
The Oakland Athletics are playing their final seasons in Sacramento before moving to Las Vegas in 2028, into a $2 billion, 33,000-seat stadium on the old Tropicana site. For A’s fans — the ones who haven’t already left — this is supposed to be the fresh start. New city, new stadium, new energy. Las Vegas is a sports town now: the Raiders, the Golden Knights, soon a basketball team. The A’s will have revenue streams that Oakland’s crumbling Coliseum never provided. On paper, this is a franchise reboot.
But the data across 10 major team relocations in four sports tells a more complicated story. Six of ten teams improved their win percentage after moving. Four got worse. The average improvement was just .050 — roughly 8 wins in a 162-game baseball season or one extra win in the NFL. And the biggest predictor of post-move success wasn’t the new city or the new stadium. It was whether ownership was willing to spend. The A’s owner, John Fisher, has fielded the lowest payroll in baseball three times since 2016. A $2 billion stadium doesn’t fix a $60 million payroll.
“Moving doesn’t make you better. Spending makes you better. The A’s problem was never Oakland. It was the owner’s checkbook. Las Vegas doesn’t change what’s in it.”
— The Sports Page, on the economics of relocationThe Relocation Scorecard: 10 Moves, 4 Sports
| Team Move | Sport | Year | Before W% | After W% | Change | Key Factor |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Nordiques → Avalanche | NHL | 1995 | .494 | .652 | +.158 | Won Cup Year 1 |
| Sonics → Thunder | NBA | 2008 | .415 | .622 | +.207 | KD era, instant success |
| Rams → LA | NFL | 2016 | .418 | .531 | +.113 | SB 2019, won SB 2022 |
| Nets → Brooklyn | NBA | 2012 | .384 | .451 | +.067 | Spending spree |
| Whalers → Hurricanes | NHL | 1997 | .430 | .470 | +.040 | Won Cup 2006 |
| Expos → Nationals | MLB | 2005 | .478 | .494 | +.016 | Won WS 2019 (14 yrs later) |
| Braves → Atlanta | MLB | 1966 | .540 | .517 | −.023 | Won WS 1995, 2021 eventually |
| Dodgers → LA | MLB | 1958 | .587 | .564 | −.023 | Dynasty came later |
| Raiders → Vegas | NFL | 2020 | .400 | .375 | −.025 | Gruden, then collapse |
| Chargers → LA | NFL | 2017 | .531 | .497 | −.034 | Worse. Empty stadium |
What Actually Predicts Wins: Spending, Not Zip Code
The Nordiques became the Avalanche and won the Cup immediately — because they already had a great roster (Sakic, Forsberg, Roy). The Chargers moved to LA and got worse — because the market didn’t embrace them. Location is the setting. Spending is the plot. Ownership is the author.
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The Expos moved to Washington in 2005 after decades of ownership neglect, stadium problems, and MLB literally owning the team. Sound familiar? The Nationals’ W% barely changed in the first five years. But new ownership (the Lerner family) invested in scouting, development, and eventually payroll. The result: Bryce Harper, Stephen Strasburg, and a 2019 World Series championship. The lesson: relocation works when new ownership commits. The Expos didn’t need a new city. They needed owners who wanted to win.
The Chargers moved from San Diego to Los Angeles in 2017 chasing a bigger media market. They got one. They also got an empty stadium, a fan base that didn’t adopt them, and worse results on the field. Their W% actually declined. In a salary-cap league, the extra revenue didn’t translate to better players — it went to the owner’s bottom line. The A’s face the same risk in Vegas: if Fisher takes the increased revenue and doesn’t reinvest it in payroll, Las Vegas becomes a more expensive version of Oakland.
