Three Franchises, Three Trajectories: The Rangers Are Falling, the Sabres Are Rising, and Vegas Is Running Out of Time
Point Percentage by Season, 2017–2026
In 2023–24, the New York Rangers won the Presidents’ Trophy with 114 points — a franchise record. Two years later, they were eliminated from playoff contention on March 25 and held a fire sale, trading leading scorer Artemi Panarin to the Kings. Their point percentage plummeted from .695 to .445, a 36% decline — the largest two-year collapse from a Presidents’ Trophy in NHL history. They are the first team in league history to miss the playoffs TWICE after winning the Trophy. At Madison Square Garden, they went 9-18-7. The building that bills itself as the world’s most famous arena became the league’s least intimidating.
Meanwhile, 370 miles northwest, the Buffalo Sabres are one win from ending the longest playoff drought in NHL history: 15 seasons. Tim’s team — our Sabres fan who has endured 14 consecutive years of missing the postseason — is about to experience something his team hasn’t done since 2011. The Sabres are first in the Atlantic Division with 86 points. Rasmus Dahlin, drafted first overall in 2018, is a Norris Trophy candidate. Tage Thompson, acquired in a 2018 trade for Ryan O’Reilly, is a 40-goal scorer. The rebuild that felt like it would never end is suddenly, spectacularly, working.
“The Sabres’ 14-year drought wasn’t just failure. It was an investment. They accumulated draft capital, developed players without pressure, and built a core that’s now ascending while the Rangers implode and Vegas ages. Patience — forced or chosen — is the strongest predictor of sustained success.”
— The Sports Page, on franchise trajectoriesSeason-by-Season Point Percentage: The Three Trajectories
| Season | Vegas | Rangers | Sabres | Key Events |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 17-18 | .714 | .445 | .305 | VGK: Cup Final (Yr 1!). BUF: Worst in NHL, draft Dahlin #1 |
| 18-19 | .598 | .415 | .427 | NYR: Lottery (Kakko) |
| 19-20 | .610 | .524 | .451 | NYR: Sign Panarin, acquire Fox |
| 20-21 | .625 | .500 | .293 | BUF: Rock bottom again |
| 21-22 | .543 | .640 | .390 | NYR: 110 pts, conf finals. VGK: Miss playoffs |
| 22-23 | .652 | .634 | .500 | VGK: WON STANLEY CUP |
| 23-24 | .695 | .695 | .500 | NYR: PRESIDENTS' TROPHY (114 pts) |
| 24-25 | .598 | .518 | .524 | NYR: Missed playoffs. BUF: Almost |
| 25-26 | .553 | .445 | .605 | BUF: 1st in Atlantic! NYR: Eliminated, fire sale |
The Three-Factor Model: What Predicts a Franchise’s Trajectory?
The Rangers’ Unprecedented Collapse
The Rangers tried to buy a championship window with free agency (Panarin, Trouba) instead of building one through the draft. The window opened for exactly two seasons (21–22, 22–23) and closed with a crash. The Sabres spent 7 years building through the draft. Their window is just opening.
They’ve Seen This Movie Before
The Sabres’ drought is the longest in NHL history. Through it, they drafted Dahlin (#1, 2018), acquired Thompson (trade, 2018), added Tuch (from Vegas, 2022), and developed a young core without the pressure of expectations. In 2025–26, that core — average age 26 — is first in the Atlantic Division. Tim waited 15 years. The payoff is here. This isn’t just a playoff berth. It’s proof that the rebuild model works — if you survive it.
Vegas did something unprecedented: they went from expansion draft to Stanley Cup Final in Year 1, won the Cup in Year 6, and maintained playoff-level competitiveness for 8 straight seasons (minus one). But expansion teams don’t accumulate draft capital the way bad teams do. Vegas spent their future to win now — and now the bill is coming due. Their core is aging (Stone 34, Eichel 29), their point percentage is falling, and younger teams (hello, Sabres) are rising. The expansion model builds fast and decays fast.
