The Archive
23
April 20, 2026
The popular comparison pits the WNBA against the NBA — an 80-year-old league against a 30-year-old one. But there’s a better comparison right next door: Major League Soccer, founded the same year, facing the same growth challenges, in a similar position as a “secondary” league in its sport. The salary gap between them? Eight percent.
22
April 20, 2026
The Lady Vols’ entire roster entered the transfer portal — zero returning players on a Pat Summitt-legacy program. But the deeper question: in which sport can losing just one superstar crater an entire season? A Bayesian model across four sports runs the numbers. One LeBron is worth 42 wins. One Mike Trout is worth 10. The math is structural — and it starts with counting to five.
21
April 19, 2026
We gave the Mets’ .500 start a pass two weeks ago. We shouldn’t have. They’re 7-14 with a 10-game losing streak — tied for the worst record in MLB. Meanwhile, Skenes recovered exactly like we modeled, the Rangers missed the playoffs, and the WNBA’s new CBA landed three days after we called the league “ahead of schedule.” Three hits, one miss, one partial. The scoreboard doesn’t lie.
20
April 17, 2026
The popular framing compares a 30-year-old league to an 80-year-old one and calls the gap a scandal. But when you compare the WNBA to where the NBA was at the same age — same maturity, same trajectory — the picture changes completely. The WNBA generates 3–4x more revenue, pays comparably after inflation, and is the most selective major league in America.
19
April 16, 2026
Transfer limits, NIL caps, and eligibility rules all favor programs that were already winning. Blue bloods won 85% of titles pre-portal. The portal briefly opened the door. The EO closes it. But threatening $380 billion in federal research funding over sports rules is a precedent that should worry everyone. Part 5 of 5 (Final).
18
April 15, 2026
Five starters with ERAs under 3.10. A bullpen at 2.84. And yet the Mets are playing .500 ball. The culprit isn’t on the mound — it’s in the batter’s box, where a $765 million outfielder is on the injured list, a $341 million shortstop is hitting .135, and the franchise’s most expensive offseason addition is posting an OBP that starts with a “2.”
17
April 14, 2026
Curt Cignetti used 18 incoming transfers to turn 3–9 Indiana into an 11–2 CFP team. Under the executive order’s transfer limits, that instant rebuild becomes nearly impossible. The drawbridge rises after the king is inside — and mid-tier programs may never get that chance again. Part 4 of 5.
16
April 13, 2026
The executive order’s sports provisions help Notre Dame on every front: transfer limits favor their recruiting, NIL caps compress spending toward their level, and the 5-year eligibility rule suits their young roster. But the enforcement mechanism — threatening federal research funding — puts $200 million at risk for a private university already dealing with grant cancellations. Part 3 of 5.
15
April 12, 2026
The first report card. We graded every prediction the newsletter has made against fresh data: Soto’s injury model nailed it, the Rangers collapse confirmed, and Skenes’ recovery is slower than our Gamma-Poisson model projected. Three clean hits, two partials, two pending.
14
April 11, 2026
Texas A&M spent $51.4 million on NIL. The average Group of 5 school spent $3 million. That’s a 14× gap. The executive order aims to compress it — and the math says it would push the entire sport toward Notre Dame’s spending level. Part 2 of 5.
13
April 10, 2026
On April 3, the President signed an executive order limiting college athletes to one free transfer. The portal grew from 1,946 entries to 3,100 in three years — now it’s about to shrink by a third. The schools that built dynasties through recruiting will thrive. Schools that built rosters through the portal — including Cignetti’s Indiana — may never get that chance again. Part 1 of 5.
12
April 9, 2026
The Raiders signed a quarterback who reportedly refused to help his replacement last year, then plan to draft his replacement this month. History says supportive mentors produce stars 80% of the time. Hostile ones? 25%. Here’s what the data — and every other sport — says about teaching someone to take your job.
11
April 8, 2026
The Rangers dropped 36% in two seasons — the biggest collapse from a Presidents' Trophy in NHL history. The Sabres are one win from ending a 15-year drought. And the Golden Knights, six years removed from their Cup, are aging into irrelevance. One chart tells the whole story.
10
April 7, 2026
Sean asked: will the A's get better? The relocation scorecard across 10 moves in 4 sports says 60% improve — but the average gain is just .050. The real variable isn't the city. It's the owner. And Gruden's emails cost the Raiders ~12 wins.
9
April 6, 2026
If you assembled a team from every player the Mets traded away or let walk in the last five years, would it beat the actual 2026 Mets? Pete Crow-Armstrong alone — traded for a 2-month rental — is worth more than everything they got for him.
8
April 5, 2026
Lindor is at .143. Bichette is at .111 with a 53% strikeout rate. Both slumping simultaneously is a 1-in-77 event. But 15 PA is 10% of the evidence needed to judge. Mets fans booed at 10% of the evidence.
7
April 4, 2026 · Breaking
Soto left Friday's game with right calf tightness. MRI pending. He was hitting .333 and carrying 28% of the team's hits. A Bayesian model says 54% chance he misses 10+ games. The lineup without him hits .211.
6
April 4, 2026
A 29% hit rate on first-round picks. Three first-round QBs with zero Pro Bowls. The longest playoff drought in professional sports. And they bust on higher picks than they hit on. Part 1 of the Jets Misery Series.
5
April 3, 2026
The 2026 NFL Draft is three weeks away. The math of combinatorics guarantees that virtually every mock draft will be wrong. The best analyst in the world nails maybe half. Here's why 32! is a 35-digit number, why trades break everything, and what your Jets, Raiders, and Notre Dame should expect.
4
April 2, 2026
The Mets are 3-3 with 50% of their games going to extras — a 1-in-99 event. They went 1-for-29 with RISP in St. Louis. But .500 after 6 games tells you exactly as much about October as the 2025 Mets' 45-24 start did: nothing. A Beta-Binomial model, PTSD therapy, and the new Sports Page layout.
3
April 1, 2026
Since Thanksgiving, the market swallowed 14 cents of every dollar. Tariffs, war, and oil did the damage. But it turns out the NY Rangers are declining at almost exactly the same rate. A cross-sport, cross-market decline comparison — plus a Monte Carlo model for when you break even.
2
March 29, 2026
Pete Alonso is 1-for-6 in Baltimore. The Mets are 2-0 without him. A Bayesian model says there's a better-than-coin-flip chance he never cracks .250 this year. The decline curve, the contract math, and why the Orioles bought the audition tape while the Mets had seen the whole movie.
1
March 27, 2026
5 earned runs in two-thirds of an inning gave baseball's brightest young arm the ugliest number imaginable. But the denominator is a liar — here's the math of why Opening Day disasters disappear, and how long it'll take Skenes to make this one a footnote.
What Is This?
The Sports Page is a newsletter for people who love sports and are curious about the numbers behind them — no statistics degree required. Every issue picks one weird stat from the news, explains why it looks so extreme, digs up who else has been there before, and runs a real statistical model to forecast what comes next.
New issues drop roughly five times a week during the season. Teams we follow most: Notre Dame football (always and forever), NY Mets, NY Rangers, NY Jets — plus the Raiders, Bills, and Seahawks for the extended family. We also chase any stat that's weird enough, from any sport, any team.
Pitch a Story
Noticed a weird stat? Saw something that doesn't add up? Send it in. The best ideas become issues.
